Xiaomi Corporation (1810.HK) Investment Analysis Report

1. Recent News and Market Sentiment

Key Developments:

• Xiaomi has significantly expanded its EV business, recently raising its 2025 delivery target to 350,000 units from the previous 300,000 units.
• The company successfully raised $5.5 billion through an upsized share sale, selling 800 million shares at HK$53.25 each.
• Stock performance has been remarkable, with share prices surging nearly 150% in the past six months from HK$21.5, driven by investor enthusiasm for EV plans.
• The company's SU7 electric vehicle line has shown strong market acceptance, with over 248,000 locked-in orders in 2024.

Upcoming Events:

• Next earnings report expected between March 17-21, 2025.
• Launch of YU7 electric SUV anticipated in June/July 2025.

2. Financial Health and Market Performance

Key Financial Metrics:

• Market Cap: HKD 1.099T
• P/E Ratio (TTM): 36.24
• EPS (TTM): 1.210
• Beta (5Y Monthly): 1.12

Revenue and Growth Projections:

• FY2025 Revenue Estimate: CNY 480.6B (31.34% growth)
• FY2026 Revenue Estimate: CNY 576.2B (19.89% growth)
• Current Quarter Revenue Estimate: CNY 108.21B

EPS Forecasts:

• FY2025 EPS Estimate: CNY 1.43
• FY2026 EPS Estimate: CNY 1.81
• Analyst Coverage: 19-21 analysts providing estimates

3. SEC Filings Analysis

(Note: As a Hong Kong-listed company, Xiaomi follows HKEX filing requirements rather than SEC)

Recent Significant Filings:

• Follow-on Equity Offering of HKD 42.6 billion
• Full year 2024 earnings exceeded analyst expectations
• New risk factor identified related to earnings quality

4. Insider Trading Activity

• Recent insider confidence indicators are positive, with management showing strong support for the company's EV initiatives
• The significant share sale for EV expansion demonstrates management's commitment to long-term growth

5. Investment Recommendation

Rating: BUY

Rationale:

1. Strong Growth Catalysts:

   • Successful entry into EV market with strong initial demand
   • Increasing delivery targets indicating operational confidence
   • Robust core business in consumer electronics

2. Financial Strength:

   • Successful capital raising
   • Strong revenue growth projections
   • Healthy market capitalization and liquidity

3. Market Position:

   • Third-largest smartphone maker globally
   • Emerging player in the EV market
   • Diversified revenue streams across consumer electronics and IoT

Risks to Consider:

1. Competitive Pressure:

   • Intense competition in both smartphone and EV markets
   • Potential margin pressure from market expansion

2. Regulatory Environment:

   • Chinese tech sector regulatory oversight
   • Global trade tensions impact

3. Execution Risk:

   • Meeting ambitious EV delivery targets
   • Managing supply chain complexities

Price Target:

The consensus target price is HKD 34.53, though recent developments and EV success suggest potential upside beyond this level.

Upcoming Catalysts:

1. Q1 2025 Earnings Report (March 17-21, 2025)
2. YU7 Electric SUV Launch (June/July 2025)
3. EV Delivery Target Achievement Progress

This analysis suggests Xiaomi represents an attractive investment opportunity, particularly for investors seeking exposure to both the consumer electronics and emerging EV markets. The company's strong financial position, clear growth strategy, and successful execution in new markets support a positive outlook for the stock.